A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
